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AUD/USD keeps gains after below-forecast Aussie trade data

  • AUD/USD is holding on to moderate gains despite below-forecast Aussie trade data for November. 
  • The uptick in the trade surplus coupled with risk reset could bode well for the AUD. 
  • Technical charts are reporting seller exhaustion near key support. 

AUD/USD continues to trade in the green despite Australia reporting a weaker-than-expected trade data for the month of November. 

The trade surplus, the amount by which the value of a country’s exports exceeds the cost of its imports, rose to A$5,800 in November, missing the expected figure of A$5,915 million, but up significantly from the preceding month’s A$4,502 reading. 

Exports or outbound shipments rose 2% in November, having dropped by 5 percent in October and imports declined by 3%. 

The month-on-month uptick in the trade surplus coupled with the de-escalation of the US-Iran tensions and the S&P 500 back searching for all-time highs, may bode well for the AUD and the currency pair may close higher on Thursday, snapping a four-day losing streak if China’s producer price index or factory-gate inflation, due at 01:30 GMT, betters estimates. The currency pair took a beating in the previous four trading days on heightened geopolitical uncertainty. 

That said, gains could be moderate at best, as the market pricing for an RBA rate cut in February remains strong at over 60%. 

The currency pair is currently trading at 0.6875, representing a 0.14% gain on the day. 

The Australian currency picked up a bid near 0.6862 earlier today, having carved out a Doji candle on Wednesday, signaling seller exhaustion around 0.6858 – the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 0.6754 to 0.7016. 

Technical levels

 

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