- USD/JPY struggled to build on the attempted recovery to mid-107.00s.
- The pair has now retreated back to the lower end of its daily trading range.
- Bears to wait for a break below 38.2% Fibo./100-EMA confluence support.
The USD/JPY pair failed to capitalize on its attempted intraday bounce and retreated back below the 106.00 round-figure mark during the early European session.
The pair has now moved back closer to the lower end of its daily trading range, which represents 38.2% Fibonacci level of last week’s 101.18-108.51 strong recovery.
The mentioned support coincides with 100-hour EMA, which if broken might be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders amid the prevailing risk-off environment.
The negative outlook is reinforced by the fact that oscillators on the daily chart maintained their bearish bias and have again started gaining drifting lower on the 1-hourly chart.
A sustained breakthrough the mentioned confluence support will reaffirm the bearish set-up and set the stage for the resumption of the pair’s recent downward trajectory.
The pair then might accelerate the fall back towards challenging the key 105.00 psychological mark before eventually dropping to the next support near the 104.60-50 region.
On the flip side, the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the 106.85 region, might now act as immediate resistance and keep a lid on any attempted recovery move.
A convincing break through should prompt some short-covering move and lift the pair back towards the daily swing high resistance near the 107.50-60 region.
USD/JPY 1-hourly chart
Technical levels to watch