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Fundamental Forex Analysis

Bundesbank sees German GDP shrinking 7.1% in 2020

According to the latest forecasts published by the German central bank, Bundesbank (Buba), the economy is seen contracting 7.1% in 2020.

Additional takeaways

German stimulus may raise 2020 GDP by more than 1%.

Sees German GDP growth of 3.2% in 2021, 3.8% in 2022.

Projections do not include recent fiscal package.

Fiscal support appropriate, takes positive view on govt’s measures.

Low point in growth appears to have passed in April.

Market reaction

EUR/USD holds the higher ground on the above projections, having hit a new three-month high at 1.1384, despite the collapse in the German Factory Order in April.

The spot adds 0.36% to trade at 1.1375.

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