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Fundamental Forex Analysis

Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -16.74 in April from -4.97 in March

  • Economic growth in the US fell substantially in April.
  • US Dollar Index recovers modestly, stays deep in negative territory. 

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to -16.74 in April to reveal a sharp contraction in the economic activity. This reading followed March’s print of -4.97.

“The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to -7.22 in April from -1.69 in March,” Chicago Fed said in its publication. “Following a period of economic expansion, an increasing likelihood of a recession has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value below -0.70.”

Market reaction

The US Dollar Index edged slightly higher after this data and was last seen down 0.68% on the day at 99.13.

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