- EUR/USD attempts some consolidation around 1.0840.
- Volatility seen diminished as US markets are closed on Monday.
- ZEW Survey, ECB Accounts, flash PMIs due later in the week.
The shared currency has started the week on a positive note and is now lifting EUR/USD to the area of 1.0840 region, up smalls for the day.
EUR/USD focused on China, data
After bottoming out in the 1.0830/25 band – or new YTD lows – at the end of last week, the pair has managed to regain some poise and is now returning to the 1.0840 area amidst a generalized consolidative mood in the global markets.
In the meantime, concerns around the COVID-19 in China continue to ebb, lending extra support to the risk-associated universe and motivating investors to look to the data front for direction in the short-term horizon.
Absent data releases in Euroland on Monday, the focus of attention will be on the ZEW Survey (Tuesday), the ECB Accounts of the January meeting (Thursday) and the advanced gauges of PMIs in core Euroland (Friday). across the pond, the publication of the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) will be in centre stage.
What to look for around EUR
The pair has so far managed to bounce off YTD lows around 1.0830 on Friday, although the bearish mood surrounding the European currency remains far from abated. In the meantime, USD-dynamics are expected to dictate the pair’s price action for the time being along with the broad risk trends, where the COVID-19 is still in the centre of the debate. On another front, the ECB is expected to finish its “strategic review” (announced at its January meeting) by year-end, leaving speculations of any change in the monetary policy before that time pretty flat. Further out, latest results from the German and EMU dockets continue to support the view that any attempt of recovery in the region remains elusive for the time being and is expected to keep weighing on the currency.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment, the pair is advancing 0.09% at 1.0838 and faces the initial hurdle at 1.0957 (weekly high Feb.10) seconded by 1.0988 (21-day SMA) and finally 1.1069 (55-day SMA). On the downside, a breach of 1.0827 (weekly/2020 low Feb.14) would target 1.0814 (78.6% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) en route to 1.0569 (monthly low Apr.10 2017).