Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offered a brief preview of Thursday’s key event risk – the latest monetary policy update by the European Central Bank (ECB).
“Today’s ECB meeting should be fairly low-key, with our base case seeing no change in rates or the policy statement, and a continuation of the more upbeat tone from the December meeting. The focus today will almost certainly be on the announcement around the ECB’s monetary policy strategy review, with markets looking to its scope and mandate for any hints into future policy moves.”
“In December though Lagarde said that, “There is no preconceived landing zone at this point in time,” and we expect to see a repetition of that message today, as she tries to avoid sending any kind of signal on whether the implications of the review are likely to be hawkish or dovish for policy.”
“Our base case sees EURUSD modestly higher as the ECB extends its more positive outlook. Overall, however, we do not think this meeting will see any significant breaks of recent ranges. For today’s event, we note that the 1.1070 area contains a cluster of technical supports. This suggests that may be the key pivot for price action surrounding today’s policy decision.”