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Fundamental Forex Analysis

German Trade Surplus shrinks to EUR3.2 billion in April, as exports slump 24%

According to the latest data released by Destatis, Germany’s Federal Statistics Office, on Tuesday, the country’s Trade Surplus narrowed further to EUR3.2 billion in April vs. EUR10 billion expected and EUR12.8 billion last.

Seasonally adjusted April imports fell by 16.5% vs. -16.0% expected and -5.1% previous, the office said.

Meanwhile, exports plunged by 24.0% in April vs. -15.6% expected and -11.8% seen in March. The March figure was the steepest drop since current records began in 1990, as the coronavirus crisis reduced demand for goods from Europe’s biggest economy,

About German Trade Balance

The Trade Balance released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the EUR. If a steady demand in exchange for German exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the EUR.
Review Alex Nekritin’s Article – Trading the Euro with Germany Trade Balance

FX implications

EUR/USD keeps its range below 1.1300, largely unfazed by the massive German exports slump. At the moment, the main currency pair trades flat at 1.1290, having hit a low of 1.1284.

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