No takers for Aussie despite big beat on China Industrial Production
Fundamental Forex Analysis

No takers for Aussie despite big beat on China Industrial Production

  • AUD/JPY is barely moving in response to upbeat China data. 
  • Industrial production bettered estimates by a big margin, indicating the economy likely bottomed out in Q4. 
  • China’s Q4 GDP matched estimates, but full-year GDP came in below expectations. 

The Aussie dollar, a proxy for China, isn’t drawing bids despite a raft of better-than-expected China data released soon before press time. 

China’s Industrial Production grew 6.9% year-on-year, beating the forecast of a 5.9% growth by a big margin and up from the preceding month’s 6.2% print. 

Meanwhile, consumer spending, as represented by Retail Sales, rose 8% year-on-year in December, also beating the forecast for a downbeat 7.8% following November’s 8% growth. 

China’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 6% as expected, while the 2019 GDP printed at 6.1%, narrowly missing the forecast of 6.2%. 

The big jump in industrial production is added evidence that the world’s second-largest economy likely bottomed out in the final quarter of 2019 and could reinforce expectations for a strong performance in 2020. 

So far, however, the data has failed to put a bid under the Aussie dollar, leaving the AUD/JPY pair largely unchanged on the day near 75.95. The pair has barely moved in response to the China data. 

Markets may be done pricing a potential rebound in China’s economy and the optimism on the trade front. The US and China signed the phase-one trade deal earlier this week, the expectations of which kept AUD/JPY and other risky assets better bid throughout the final quarter of 2019. 

Technical levels

 

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