In the view of the Rabobank Research Team, the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision and the UK’s exit out of the European Union on January, 31st will stand out this week.
“The BoE policy meeting on January 31 is more likely to have market participants sitting on the edges of their seats. Following a shockingly weak UK December retail sales data release, a weak CPI inflation report and some dovish commentary from a handful of MPC officials including BoE Governor Carney, expectations for a BoE rate cut surged earlier this month.
These hopes were subsequently reined in by some better than expected UK data releases which underpinned the perception that the economy could be benefitting from a ‘Boris bounce’ after the December general election.
As it stands the money market is less confidence about a January move than a week or so ago but a rate cut in the coming months is priced in. It is our view that the BoE could cut rates twice during the course of this year.
The UK CBI January retail survey and the Nationwide January house price index will be watched this week.
January 31 will be significant in the UK for another reason. Three and a half years after the Brexit referendum in June 2016, the UK will finally leave the EU. The occasion will open the door for talks between the UK and the EU on their future relationship and for trade negotiations with other nations.”