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Upside risks to EUR/Asia crosses but not on EUR strength

ANZ analysts see upside risks to EUR/Asia pairs as the coronavirus outbreak is likely to impact Asian economies more than the Eurozone. 

Key points 

We started 2020 with a more constructive view on Asia FX, as after two years of confrontation, the US and China signed a Phase One trade deal. 

The trade optimism, however, was short-lived due to the coronavirus outbreak, which is likely to have a bigger impact on Asian economies via the tourism and trade channels.

It is unlikely that the euro will begin a sustained recovery until the output data start to improve. We maintain our slightly constructive view on EUR, expecting EUR/USD to end this year at 1.12. 

We see upside risk in EUR/Asia crosses (EUR/SGD, EUR/CNH, EUR/KRW and EUR/INR). 
 

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