In view of analysts at Danske Bank, the US CPI data for December is unlikely to rock the boat, as the growth outlook has been more important to the Federal Reserve for some time now with core inflation definitely not spinning out of control.
“Inflation may return to the spotlight at a later stage, as the Fed struggles to live up to the 2% inflation mandate when looking at PCE core inflation. We expect CPI core inflation to rise 2.3% y/y in line with consensus.”
“In our own backyard, we have some Swedish data due out today. The Swedish PES unemployment rate showed a rise to 4.0% in December from 3.9%. Household consumption in November is due out at 09:30 CET.”
“In the US, the NFIB small business optimism index has rebounded and remains high. There has been a divergence in business confidence between small and large companies. This makes sense, as smaller companies have been less exposed to slower global growth and trade war risks. We think the small business optimism index will remain upbeat.”
“In the afternoon, we have a few speeches from Fed and ECB policymakers.”