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Fundamental Forex Analysis

US: Payrolls were a bit weaker than expected but trend still looks fairly strong

“Payrolls rose 145K, in December, below the 160K consensus; we had forecast 145K,” noted TD Securities analysts.

Key quotes

“US payrolls were a bit weaker than generally expected, but through the volatility, the trend still looks fairly strong. Perhaps more notable was the weakness in hourly earnings; those data are also volatile but previous upward momentum seems to have at least temporarily faded.”

“The USD is a little softer following the disappointment relative to consensus, though we think this is much ado about nothing. On the whole, labor markets remain in decent shape though the deceleration in wage inflation since early 2019 may become a focal point for markets going forward.”

“The USD has had a decent start in the first full trading week since the holidays, and hence, we think any shine taken off of the carry king will be concentrated against those that have languished the most over that time period. Here, we are particularly focused on USDJPY which has comfortably broken through the 200dma this week and is flirting with a topside breakout above 110.”

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