USD’s spike triggers mini-flash crashes, China PMI bounce boosts risk, a busy docket ahead
Fundamental Forex Analysis

USD’s spike triggers mini-flash crashes, China PMI bounce boosts risk, a busy docket ahead

Forex today in Asia witnessed some volatile swings in early trading hours this Tuesday, as it is the last trading data for Japan’s fiscal year and the end of the quarter globally. In lieu of the same, most majors saw a mini flash crash after the US dollar spiked hard across its major peers, as the Japanese traders piled on to US currency amid talks of dollar shortage and fiscal year-end.

Meanwhile, a positive surprise delivered by the Chinese Manufacturing and Services PMIs helped extend the overnight risk-on mood into Asia. However, the Asian stocks and US equity futures failed to hold onto early gains as the coronavirus spread showed no signs of slowing down while its growing economic costs kept investors on the edge.

Amongst the G10 fx space, USD/JPY dipped to 107.78 but rebounded almost a big figure on the dollar’s sharp surge, having pierced through 108.00 to reach 108.71 highs. The Aussie slipped to 0.6079 lows but staged a solid comeback to 0.6200 after Chinese PMI returned to expansion in March. The Canadian dollar failed to benefit from the oil-price rebound, as USD/CAD traded with mild gains around 1.4200.

EUR/USD stalled its recovery just above 1.1050 and fell briefly below 1.1000 while GBP/USD was the main laggard, with 1.2300 back on sellers’ radar. Meanwhile, gold prices wavered in a familiar 1600/1650 range, awaiting a fresh catalyst for the next direction.  

Main topics in Asia

US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin: Seeking to promote more domestic manufacturing

US Pres. Trump: Prepared if the virus strikes again in the fall season

Mnuchin: Americans will begin receiving economic impact payments in the next 3 weeks

China Manufacturing PMIs arrive at 52.0 (Reuters poll 45.0) vs 35.7 in February

US is set to lose its spot as world’s top oil producer, energy experts say – CNBC

World Bank: China’s 2020 GDP forecast is 2.3%

PBOC’s Ma: Setting GDP target may force China to resort to flood-like stimulus

Japan Economic Minister Nishimura: Job market held up in feb but i have strong sense of crisis as situation could worsen

Coronavirus update: S. Korea reports 125 new cases, China adds 48 imported cases

Japan’s Motegi issues advice against travel to 73 countries, regions

Japan’s Aso: G20 financial leaders to discuss steps on virus Tuesday

WHO’s Kasai: Coronavirus epidemic is ‘far from over’ in Asia-Pacific

UK consumer and business morale hit by coronavirus crisis – Surveys

Key focus ahead        

Markets brace for a busy European session ahead, with plenty of economic releases due on the cards, kicking-off with the UK Current Account and Final GDP data due at 0600 GMT. At the same time, the German Import Price Index data will be reported. Next of note remains the German Unemployment Rate and Change data, dropping in at 0755 GMT, amid the virus impact. The Eurozone Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) will also grab some attention at 0900 GMT.

In NA session, the Canadian GDP and the US CB Consumer Confidence will stand out among other second-tier macro releases. The American Petroleum Institute’s (API) report on weekly US Crude Oil Stock data, due at 2030 GMT, will be closely eyed by the oil and CAD traders for fresh trading impulse.

Investors will continue to pay close attention to the US dollar price-action and broad risk trends amid coronavirus-related updates while heading into the quarterly close.

EUR/USD eyes indecisive monthly close

EUR/USD is on track to close March with a Doji candle, which represents indecision in the market. Doji’s high and low are focal points for the bull-bear tussle. Risk reset and dollar weakness look likely with China’s PMI bettering estimates.

GBP/USD extends losses below 1.2400 ahead of UK GDP

GBP/USD remains on the back foot below 1.2400. The EU-UK tussle over Brexit deadline renewed amid coronavirus. Numbers of cases drop in the UK but experts doubt the conclusion. UK GDP, US data can offer intermediate direction.

US Conference Board Consumer Confidence March Preview: Three years vanish in an instant

Markets focused on the virus effect on consumer attitudes and spending. Michigan sentiment shed 11.9 points in March to the lowest since October 2016. March CB Survey cutoff date mid-month may have missed the worst impact.

Tuesday, Mar 31
00:00

-63.5

-24.1

-19.4

00:00

-26.7%

7.3%

12.0%

00:30

2.8%

 

2.5%

00:30

0.4%

0.2%

0.4% Revised from 0.3%

n/a

6.2%

-1.9%

5.7%

01:00

52.0

45.0

35.7

01:00

52.3

37.8

29.6

05:00

0.7%

-0.7%

-17.0%

05:00

-12.3%

-14.7%

-10.1%

05:00

0.871M

 

0.813M

06:00

 

-0.3%

-0.4%

06:00

 

-1.5%

-0.9%

06:00

 

 

3.1%

06:00

 

 

1.8%

06:00

 

 

0.2%

06:00

 

0%

0%

06:00

 

1.1%

1.1%

06:00

 

-1%

-1%

06:00

 

0.9%

0.9%

06:00

 

£-7.00B

£-15.86B

06:30

 

-0.7%

-0.1%

06:45

 

-0.1%

-0.1%

06:45

 

-0.1%

0.0%

06:45

 

1.0%

1.6%

06:45

 

0.1%

-1.1%

07:00

 

 

-4.45B

07:00

 

 

13.1%

07:00

 

 

3.8%

07:00

 

2.0%

1.8%

07:00

 

5%

5%

07:55

 

28K

-10K

07:55

 

5.1%

5.0%

08:00

 

4.4%

4.7%

08:00

 

0.3%

0.7%

08:00

 

0.5%

0.5% Revised from 0.4%

08:00

 

1.8%

1.8% Revised from 1.9%

08:00

 

€-0.37B

€2.21B

08:30

 

 

0.4%

08:30

 

 

-0.6%

08:30

 

 

-21.4%

09:00

 

0.3%

0.3%

09:00

 

0.1%

-0.1%

09:00

 

-0.1%

0.2%

09:00

 

-0.3%

-0.5%

09:00

 

0.8%

1.2%

09:00

 

1.2%

1.2%

n/a

 

 

1%

n/a

 

 

0.36%

10:00

 

 

-2.3%

10:00

 

 

-0.2%

10:00

 

 

-1.5%

n/a

 

 

9,854.72B

12:00

 

 

11.2%

12:00

 

7.2%

7.4%

12:00

 

 

1.8%

12:00

 

 

-1.87B

n/a

 

5.7%

2.2%

12:30

 

-0.8%

-2.2%

12:30

 

0.1%

-0.3%

12:30

 

0.1%

0.3%

12:55

 

 

1.7%

12:55

 

 

9.1%

13:00

 

3.2%

2.9%

13:30

 

 

19.12B

13:30

 

-11.547B

56.276B

13:45

 

40

49

14:00

 

 

16:00

 

 

13%

20:30

 

 

-1.25M

21:30

 

 

44.3

22:00

 

 

106.3

23:00

 

 

50.1

23:01

 

 

-0.6%

23:01

 

77.3

77.3

23:50

 

-1.1%

6.8%

23:50

 

6

20

23:50

 

-14

0

23:50

 

2

18

23:50

 

-10

0

Wednesday, Apr 01
00:00

 

 

$3.98B

00:01

 

 

51.2

00:30

 

 

48.7

00:30

 

44.8

44.8

00:30

 

 

-11.3%

00:30

 

4.5%

-15.3%

01:45

 

46.0

40.3

n/a

 

0.14%

0.28%

n/a

 

2.96%

2.98%

n/a

 

2.79%

2.76%

05:30

 

-5.2%

-6.1%

06:00

 

0.0%

0.9%

06:00

 

1.5%

1.8%

06:00

 

 

48.2

06:30

 

52.4

53.2

07:00

 

45.2

48.2

07:00

 

 

50.1

07:00

 

 

€433M

07:00

 

 

52.9

07:00

 

 

07:15

 

44.0

50.4

07:30

 

46.5

46.5

07:30

 

40.0

49.5

07:45

 

40.5

48.7

07:50

 

42.9

42.9

07:55

 

45.5

45.7

08:00

 

10.0%

9.8%

08:00

 

 

56.2

08:00

 

 

8.1%

08:00

 

 

334K

08:00

 

44.7

44.8

08:30

 

47

48

09:00

 

 

$13.93B

09:00

 

 

49.1

09:00

 

7.4%

7.4%

09:30

 

 

92.7

10:30

 

 

1.5%

11:00

 

 

-29.4%

n/a

 

 

$131.151B

12:00

 

0.0%

0.9%

12:00

 

-7.5%

-0.9%

12:00

 

 

43.485

12:00

 

 

-27.4B

12:15

 

-154K

183K

13:00

 

51.7

52.3

13:30

 

53.3

51.8

13:45

 

49.2

49.2

14:00

 

45.4

46.9

14:00

 

45.0

50.1

14:00

 

41.3

45.9

14:00

 

50.2

49.8

14:00

 

0.6%

1.8%

14:30

 

 

1.623M

18:00

 

1.834B

3.096B

24h

 

 

19:30

 

 

16.8M

20:00

 

 

471.69B

23:00

 

0.9%

1.1%

23:00

 

-0.3%

0.0%

23:50

 

 

$1,359B

23:50

 

3.7%

3.6%

23:50

 

 

¥-65.7B

23:50

 

 

¥-1,462.1B

Thursday, Apr 02
03:35

 

 

-0.1%

n/a

 

2.0%

2.3%

n/a

 

-0.1%

0.3%

06:30

 

0.1%

0.1%

06:30

 

-0.5%

-0.1%

07:00

 

 

-7.8K

08:00

 

 

0.11%

n/a

 

 

0.661%

n/a

 

 

0.024%

08:40

 

 

-0.26%

09:00

 

-0.2%

0.4%

09:00

 

-0.7%

-0.5%

n/a

 

 

-0.32%

n/a

 

 

-3.3B

11:30

 

 

56.66K

12:30

 

$-40.0B

$-45.3B

12:30

 

 

1.803M

12:30

 

3,000K

3,283K

12:30

 

 

998.25K

12:30

 

$47.70B

$48.14B

12:30

 

$-1.87B

$-1.47B

12:30

 

$49.00B

$49.61B

13:00

 

 

$551.2B

13:45

 

57.9

51.9

14:00

 

0.2%

-0.5%

14:30

 

 

-29B

15:00

 

 

429B

15:30

 

 

0%

17:00

 

 

9.25%

21:30

 

 

42.7

23:00

 

39.8

39.8

23:00

 

 

40.7

Friday, Apr 03
00:01

 

 

59.9

00:30

 

 

33.1

00:30

 

 

46.8

00:30

 

0.4%

-0.3%

01:45

 

 

26.5

05:00

 

-0.3%

0.1%

05:00

 

0.7%

-5.3%

06:00

 

 

52

06:45

 

 

€-20B

07:00

 

 

0.48%

07:00

 

 

9.26%

07:00

 

0.65%

0.35%

07:00

 

12.70%

12.37%

07:00

 

2.1%

-2.1%

07:00

 

 

7.6%

07:15

 

25.5

52.1

07:45

 

22.0

52.1

07:50

 

30.2

30.2

07:50

 

29

29

07:55

 

36.8

37.2

07:55

 

34.3

34.5

08:00

 

1.7%

1.8%

08:00

 

28.4

28.4

08:00

 

31.4

31.4

08:00

 

2.3%

2.3%

08:00

 

 

75.15K

08:30

 

34.8

35.7

09:00

 

0.1%

0.6%

09:00

 

1.7%

1.7%

12:00

 

45.2

43.9

12:00

 

 

43.3

12:30

 

3%

3%

12:30

 

34.1

34.4

12:30

 

-100K

273K

12:30

 

4.0%

3.5%

12:30

 

7.1%

7.0%

12:30

 

63.3%

63.4%

12:30

 

0.2%

0.3%

13:00

 

48.6

48.7

13:45

 

39.1

39.1

13:45

 

40.5

40.5

14:00

 

53.7

55.6

14:00

 

53.0

50.8

14:00

 

56.6

63.1

14:00

 

44.0

57.3

24h

 

 

24h

 

 

24h

 

 

24h

 

 

17:00

 

 

624

19:00

 

 

-0.1%

19:30

 

 

$12.7K

19:30

 

 

436K

19:30

 

 

$288.4K

19:30

 

 

£10.9K

19:30

 

 

¥23.9K

19:30

 

 

€61.3K

19:30

 

 

$-25.2K

21:00

 

 

409.17B

 

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