The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) analysts offer a brief insight into the key economic events lined up for release next week.
“AU: We expect retail sales figures for December to be down 0.2% m/m, as evidence suggests consumers brought forward their usual holiday purchases to take advantage of November’s Black Friday sales, contributing to the November spike.
We expect the RBA’s policy rate to remain on hold. While domestic and global data have improved, the gap between the unemployment rate and the RBA’s target remains wide. Lowe’s speech and the SoMP will help markets gauge the policy impact of bushfires or coronavirus.
NZ: We expect Q4 unemployment of 4.2%, with risks broadly balanced. Given recent strength in kiwi yields, any upside surprise is likely to affirm the RBNZ’s patient view of the domestic economy while a downside surprise will add to NZDs recent vulnerability.
US: Modest improvement in manufacturing ISM is expected with regional Fed surveys indicating continued stabilization. No surprises are expected from non-manufacturing PMIs or labor market data.
EA: While sentiment within industrial sectors has shown improvement, factory orders and IP will allow us to assess how confidence is feeding into hard data.
CH: Industrial profits and PMIs data are due out and may provide early clues to the impact of coronavirus on industrial output. It is too early to assess the full impact, as domestic containment and restrictions continue, however, a soft print at this stage would offer more sustained downside to global risk.”