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When are the US durable goods orders and how could they affect EUR/USD?

US durable goods orders overview

Tuesday’s US economic docket highlights the release of durable goods orders data for December. The US Census Bureau is scheduled to release the monthly report at 13:30 GMT and consensus estimates point to a 0.5% rise during the reported month as compared to November’s awful reading of -2.1%.

Meanwhile, core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation items and tend to have a broader impact than the volatile headline figures, are anticipated to register a modest growth of 0.2% in December as against a 0.1% decline recorded in the previous month. On the other hand, non-defence capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and parts) – a proxy for business investment – are forecasted to rise by 0.5% as compared to November’s growth of 0.7%.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

As NDDFX’s Senior Analyst, Joseph Trevisani explains: “With all of the world’s major central bank on a sustained policy hold the relative strength of their currencies depends on economic comparison. For the US dollar the better the performance of the economy the better for the greenback.”

Meanwhile, NDDFX Editor Pablo Piovano offered a brief technical outlook and important levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “The ongoing leg lower in EUR/USD appears to have met some contention in the 1.10 neighbourhood for the time being. However, if the selling impetus regains steam, then the 1.0980 region – where is located November’s low – should return to the traders’ radar. In the broader picture, as long as the 55-day SMA – today at 1.1089 – caps the upside, the bearish stance on the spot is seen unchanged.”

“Although not favoured in the short-term view, if bulls regain the upper hand, interim resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at 1.1068. This area of resistance is reinforced by the proximity of the 3-month resistance line. Something to keep in mind: the RSI is close to the oversold territory, while the ADX at around 15, shows the current downtrend lacks (proper?) strength,” Pablo added further.

Key Notes

   •  US Durable Goods Orders Preview for December: Positive patience

   •  EUR/USD Forecast: The 1.10 area is seen holding the downside

   •   EUR/USD Price Analysis: A breach of 1.10 exposes a test of 1.0980

About US durable goods orders

The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.

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