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Fundamental Forex Analysis

When are US monthly retail sales figures and how could they affect EUR/USD?

US monthly retail sales overview

Tuesday’s US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for May, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Following a record 16.4% drop in April, consensus estimates point to a strong rebound. In fact, the headline sales are seen rising 8% during the reported month. The figure excluding autos is also anticipated to have recorded a strong growth of 5.5%. Meanwhile, the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is predicted to climb 3.8% as compared to the previous month’s awful -15.3% fall.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Against the backdrop of the recently released stronger-than-expected US economic data, including the monthly jobs report, there are chances that the retail sales might too surprise on the upside. This, in turn, should benefit the US dollar and prompt some fresh selling around the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, the market reaction to the data is likely to be short-lived, rather overshadowed by some repositioning trade ahead of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.

Meanwhile, Yohay Elam, NDDFX’s own analyst, provided some important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “Resistance is at 1.1375, which was a swing high last week. It is followed by 1.1425, the monthly peak, and then by 1.1495, the high point in March. Support awaits at 1.1270, a stepping stone on the way up, followed by 1.1240, a support line last week. Strong support is at 1.1210, Friday’s trough.”

Key Notes

US Retail Sales May Preview: Deferred consumption or cancellation?

EUR/USD Forecast: Challenging the highs? After Trump and Powell’s pumping up, retail sales are key

EUR/USD stays consolidative near 1.1330, looks to Powell, data

About US retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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