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Fundamental Forex Analysis

When are US monthly retail sales figures and how could they affect EUR/USD?

US monthly retail sales overview

Thursday’s US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures, scheduled at 13:30 GMT. Consensus estimates point to modest growth of 0.3% for December as compared to the previous month’s 0.2% increase. Sales excluding automobiles (core retail sales) are seen rising by 0.5% during the reported month as against a dismal 0.1% growth recorded in November. Meanwhile, the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is expected to rise by 0.4% following a 0.1% increase in November.

As Joseph Trevisani, Senior Analyst at NDDFX explains: “Income, wages and the job market should continue to enable a healthy consumer economy. Removing the lingering fear of an ever worsening trade war with China should bolster consumer attitudes and return business spending and manufacturing jobs. Equity prices can only add to the general sense of economic well-being. The ingredients are in place for a burst of consumer spending.”

How could it affect EUR/USD?

According to Yohay Elam, NDDFX’s own analyst, “Euro/dollar has advanced above the 50 and 100 Simple Moving Averages on the four-hour chart. Moreover, the currency pair broke above the downtrend support line that accompanied it since late December. All in all, bulls remain in control.”

Yohay also provided important technical levels to trade the major: “Resistance awaits at the fresh high of 1.1165, followed by 1.1205, 1.1230, and 1.1240, which were stepping stones on the way down. Support awaits at 1.1145, followed by 1.1125, a swing low early in the year). The next lines to watch are 1.1105 and 1.1085, which were low points in the past week.”

Key Notes

   •   US Retail Sales December Preview: ‘Twas the month after Christmas

   •   EUR/USD has room to rise ahead of US retail sales, ECB minutes – Confluence Detector

   •   EUR/USD Forecast: Will the gradual climb turn into a rally? Three keys to the next move

About US retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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