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Fundamental Forex Analysis

When is the German IFO survey and how it could affect EUR/USD?

The German IFO Business Survey Overview

The German IFO survey for April is due for release later today at 0900 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is seen weaker at 80.0 versus 86.1 previous.

The Current Assessment sub-index is seen arriving at 81.0 this month, while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to come in at 75.0 in the reported month vs. 79.7 last.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street’s proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.4 to -3.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

According to Haresh Menghani, Analyst at NDDFX, “From a technical perspective, the overnight slide below the 1.0800 horizontal zone now seems to have confirmed a near-term bearish breakdown. Hence, some follow-through weakness towards the 1.0700 mark, en-route YTD lows around the 1.0635 region, now looks a distinct possibility.”

“On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempt might now confront some fresh supply near the 1.0810-15 region. Sustained move beyond the mentioned barrier might trigger a short-covering bounce and assist the pair to aim towards reclaiming the 1.0900 mark,” Haresh adds.

Key notes

EUR/USD: Further extensions lower in the coming sessions – OCBC

Germany’s Scholz: EU has acted quickly to offset economic impact of coronavirus

EUR Futures: Decline seems limited

About the German IFO Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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