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Fundamental Forex Analysis

When is the German IFO survey and how it could affect EUR/USD?

The German IFO Business Survey Overview

The German IFO survey for June is due for release later today at 0800 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is seen improving to 85.0 versus 79.5 previous.

The Current Assessment sub-index is seen arriving at 84.0 this month, while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to come in at 87.0 in the reported month vs. 80.1 last.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street’s proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 30 pips in deviations up to 3.0 to -4.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

According to Haresh Menghani, Analyst at NDDFX, “from a technical perspective, the overnight break through the descending wedge pattern was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. A subsequent move beyond 1.1300 mark might have already set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move. Hence, some follow-through strength, towards reclaiming the 1.1400 mark, now looks a distinct possibility. Above the mentioned level, the pair is likely to aim back towards testing YTD tops, just ahead of the key 1.1500 psychological mark.”

“On the flip side, any meaningful slide below the 1.1300 mark now seems to find decent support near the 1.1270-65 region. Failure to defend the mentioned support might prompt some technical selling and accelerate the fall further towards the 1.1200 round-figure mark,” Haresh adds.

Key notes

EUR/USD: Bulls need an upbeat German IFO Expectations figure to scale key resistance

Forex Today: Dollar jittery amid cautious optimism, eyes on German IFO, virus stats

Coronavirus update: Germany’s news cases continue to rise by over 500, R-rate drops to 2.02

About the German IFO Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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