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Fundamental Forex Analysis

When is the German ZEW survey and how could it affect EUR/USD?

German ZEW Survey Overview

The ZEW will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index at 0900 GMT in the EU session later today, reflecting institutional investors’ opinions for the next six months.

The headline Economic Sentiment Index is expected to rise to 32.0 in May as against a 28.2 reading booked in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Current Situation Sub-Index is likely to arrive at -88.0 versus a -91.5 figure recorded last month.     

How could they affect EUR/USD?

The optimism over the anti-coronavirus vaccine negates the US-China tensions and continues to boost the risk-on sentiment. The haven demand for the US dollar is therefore absent and helps underpin the renewed upside in EUR/USD, as we head towards the German ZEW release.

Should the German data beat estimates, the shared currency could see a fresh leg higher and drive EUR/USD towards the 1.1000 level. A break above which would open doors for a test of the monthly highs at 1.1017.

On a downside surprise, the rates could pare back the previous gains to test the 1.0900 mark.  At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades at 1.0940, down 0.27% on a daily basis.

Key notes

EUR/USD Forecast: Downside risk persists despite the overnight bullish move

EUR/USD: Flirting with the 55-day moving average at 1.0934 – Commerzbank

Germany and France propose a EUR500bn recovery fund

About German ZEW

The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).

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