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Fundamental Forex Analysis

When is the US GDP report and how could it affect EUR/USD?

US Q4 GDP Overview

Thursday’s US economic docket highlights the release of Preliminary (revised) US Q4 GDP growth figures, scheduled to be published at 13:30 GMT. The second estimate is anticipated to show that the economic growth in the October-December quarter stood at 2.4% annualized pace, unchanged from the advance estimate.

According to Joseph Trevisani, Senior Analyst at NDDFX – “The small downward adjustment to the December retail spending component is not likely to produce a change in the GDP estimate, though its existence tilts the risk a bit to the negative.  Either way the dollar will not be affected, currency traders having more timely concerns.”

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Given the recent concerns over the global outbreak of the deadly coronavirus and its impact on the world economy, a big divergence from the expected reading – though seems unlikely – might be enough to infuse a fresh bout of volatility in the currency markets.

Meanwhile, Yohay Elam offered a brief technical overview of the EUR/USD pair and explained: “Euro/dollar has broken above the uptrend channel that accompanied it since last week. On its way up it also broke above the 100 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart and momentum is to the upside. The Relative Strength Index is nearing 70 – which represents oversold conditions.”

“Resistance awaits at 1.0968, which provided support on the way down. It is followed by 1.0980, a support line from early February, and then by 1.1020 and 1.1035. Support awaits at 1.0940, a support line on the way down, followed by 1.0925, a resistance line from mid-February and by 1.0885, which separated ranges several weeks ago. 1.0860, 1.0810, and 1.0777 are next,” Yohay added further.

Key Notes

   •   US Fourth Quarter GDP Preview: Old news

   •   EUR/USD Forecast: Trump-ed up above the channel and finally a genuine reason to rise

   •    EUR/USD Price Analysis: Recovery now targets the 1.0980 area

About the US GDP

The Gross Domestic Product Annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP Annualized is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country’s economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

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